Over 6,500 Earth observation satellites to launch by 2035, generating $155.9 billion

More than 6,500 Earth observation (EO) satellites are expected to launch by 2035, generating $155.9 billion in manufacturing revenue, according to the latest forecast from Novaspace, a Paris-based analytics firm. The surge is driven by governments expanding their sovereign intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities.

Federico Banfi, Consultant at Novaspace, said the rules of the game are changing. Defense users increasingly require sovereign access to Earth observation capabilities, while commercial operators are becoming essential partners in delivering them. This shift is reshaping constellation architectures, sensor strategies, and the broader EO market.

Historically, EO performance was largely defined by image resolution. Today, defense users are placing greater emphasis on revisit rates, persistence, and wide-area coverage to support continuous monitoring and faster decision-making. This is driving demand for larger constellations and more diverse sensor architectures.

The shift is also accelerating the adoption of multi-sensor constellations combining synthetic aperture radar (SAR), optical, and radio frequency (RF) payloads. By integrating complementary intelligence sources, operators can provide more resilient and comprehensive Earth observation capabilities while meeting increasingly demanding defense requirements.

The rise of the "Skyscraper Model" is also well underway, where satellite buses become increasingly standardized with value shifting toward the integration of advanced payloads and multiple intelligence layers. As the EO market evolves, commercial operators are expected to play a growing role in supplying data and services to government clients, blurring the lines between traditional defense and commercial space sectors.