Space manufacturing could become a $2.7 trillion reality by 2040 — but only if we mine asteroids first

Full-scale manufacturing in space could become a viable part of the global economy, but only if humanity learns how to extract and process resources beyond Earth. This is the key conclusion of a study by researchers from Siberian Federal University (SFU) and the R&D center Geotechnology.

The team analyzed the prospects of the space economy, with a particular focus on the exploration and processing of minerals on asteroids, the Moon, and other celestial bodies. According to Alexander Kirsanov, a PhD in Engineering at SFU and co-author of the study, the current global space economy has already surpassed $500 billion and continues to grow.

Kirsanov highlighted the relocation of some manufacturing processes to space as a promising direction. This could involve producing goods for the Earth market as well as items needed directly for space infrastructure — such as components for orbital stations, lunar bases, or spacecraft.

The researchers argue that developing extraterrestrial resource extraction could serve as the foundation for a self-sustaining economic system beyond Earth. Resources obtained in space could be used right where they are mined, reducing the reliance of space projects on constant supplies launched from Earth. This would lower costs and increase the autonomy of future missions.

The study projects that the global space market could reach between $1 trillion and $2.7 trillion by 2040. A significant portion of this economy, the researchers expect, will be tied to the use of off-Earth resources. These materials will be essential for building and maintaining lunar bases, expanding orbital infrastructure, and supporting long-term human presence in space.

The findings suggest that the transition to a space-based economy will require not only technological breakthroughs in mining and manufacturing but also new legal and economic frameworks to govern resource ownership and trade beyond Earth.