iPhone 18 prices set to rise as US smartphone sales drop 5% in Q2

Counterpoint Research analysts recorded a 5% decline in US smartphone sales in the second quarter of 2026. The main driver was rising component costs, particularly for memory, which hit the budget segment hardest.

Sales of devices under $100 plunged nearly 65% year over year. Combined sales from Apple, Samsung, Motorola, and Google fell just 4% annually, while the rest of the market saw a 45% collapse. Smaller brands struggled to absorb higher component prices, while larger companies managed to offset the cost increases.

The weakness in cheap phones benefited Samsung and Motorola: the price gap between their entry-level models and white-label devices narrowed, allowing both vendors to grow their share of the prepaid market.

Apple has so far kept iPhone prices unchanged in the US, even as it raised prices for other products. However, Counterpoint expects the company to increase prices for the iPhone 18 series, which is set to be announced in the coming weeks. According to the report, average selling prices will continue to climb in Q3 2026 precisely because of this move.

Analysts note that Apple historically accounts for over 50% of smartphone sales in the third quarter, so higher flagship prices will significantly impact the market average. Sales performance will depend on how much carriers are willing to subsidize the new models. Apple is expected to see a strong upgrade cycle from iPhone 15 users, and if carriers keep offering devices for free or nearly free, demand should remain robust.

Earlier, analyst Jeff Pu projected the iPhone 18 Pro at $1,349 to $1,399, the iPhone 18 Pro Max at $1,449 to $1,499, and the iPhone Ultra starting around $2,500. Late last month, Apple reported iPhone revenue up 22% to $54.2 billion, warning that memory costs and supply constraints would worsen significantly in the second half, particularly for iPhone, iPad, and Mac.